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    權證的騙局

    作者: 阮一峰

    日期:2007年9月7日

    我今天才讀到今年7月北京青年報的一篇報道《招行權證創設是否涉嫌詐騙?》,這才意識到在過去三個月中,發生了一起多么惡劣的事件。

    一、

    為了照顧不熟悉證券市場的朋友,我先來解釋一下,什么是“權證”(warrant)。

    權證是一種金融交易工具,它買賣的不是實體商品,而是一種權利,學名叫做期權(option)。以招行權證為例,它代表的權利是,可以在2007年8月31日以5.45元向證券公司出售招商銀行的股票。

    權證本身的價格很容易計算,如果招商銀行的股票是4.45元,那么權證價格就是5.45減去4.45,也就是1元;如果招商銀行的股票是6.45元,那么權證的價格為零,因為在市場上直接賣出的價格更高,這種5.45元出售股票的權利也就一錢不值。這就是說只要股票的市場價格大于5.45元,權證就是一張廢紙。

    說到這里,大家應該可以看出來,權證的主要作用是控制風險,如果我買入招行權證,那么我就不用擔心招商銀行的股票跌到5.45元以下了,因為權證保證我擁有5.45元賣出的權利。

    如果看完上面一段,你還是沒有搞清楚什么是權證,那也沒有關系,只要記住一旦股票價格高于5.45元,招行權證就是一張廢紙,這就可以了。

    二、

    整個2007年8月,招商銀行的股價一直是30多元,看上去絕無可能下跌到5.45元。這就是說招行權證應該是一錢不值的。但是事實上,招行權證一直保持著1元多的價格,甚至最高到過4.949元。

    我們不禁要問了,為什么一張廢紙還會有這樣的價格?

    答案也很簡單,因為可以炒作。權證交易不征收印花稅,沒有漲跌幅限制,在一天之內可以任意多次的買進賣出,這些特點使得權證成了一個天然的投機品種。

    所有購買權證的人,都心知肚明自己買了一張廢紙。但是他們滿懷希望,等待著更大的傻瓜在更高的價格,再買走這張廢紙。大家不妨在搜索引擎查詢“權證 致富”,看看返回多少結果,“權證比股票更賺錢”、“7萬變為2000萬”、“820元一天翻成56萬”這樣的標題隨處可見。正是在這種賭博心理的支持下,才會有無數人買賣廢紙一樣的權證。

    從2007年6月1日直到8月24日期滿摘牌為止的60個交易日中,招行權證的最高價格是4.949元,最低價格是0.001元,成交額累計高達12000億元,比上海去年一年的國內生產總值GDP還要高。

    12000億人民幣在瘋狂地買賣一張廢紙,這是一件多么神奇的事情啊!但是,這件事還沒有完,后面還有更不可思議的事情。

    三、

    整個事件中,最最神奇的事情就是,證券公司居然可以隨時隨地任意創設權證!

    2007年6月19日招行權證的收盤價是3.116元,第二天就有15家證券公司宣布合計創設約12.27億份招行權證在當天上市。這意味著,理論上只要這些證券公司將這些新創設的權證拋出,就可以在一天之內收入近40億元,而由于招行權證內在價值為零,所以成本也為零。

    這就是中國證券市場。一張廢紙的價格3元多,而且證券公司還可以像印鈔機那樣,隨時增加廢紙的供給,在市場上拋出獲利。

    事實上,招商銀行的流通股只有47億股,而權證最高時有60多億份。這說明權證的創設已經到了毫無節制的地步了。

    在這種瘋狂的交易中,獲利最大的就是證券公司。據估計,證券公司創設權證的收入有100多億,權證交易傭金的收入又有100多億,坐莊炒作的收入更是難以估計。根據中信證券2007中期財務報告,42億利潤中有26億來自招行權證。

    由于權證交易是零和游戲,有人盈利,必然有人虧損。所以,這些證券公司的飛來橫財只可能來自那些中小投資者。

    四、

    證券公司可以如此輕松地將股市當作提款機,沒有上海證券交易所的配合是做不到的。

    上交所居然會同意證券公司可以隨時創設權證,而且創設的權證總數大大高于實際的流通股票數,在這種情況下,還有誰會相信它是一個自稱“公平、公開、公正”的市場中介機構呢?

    讓我引用一篇報道中提供的資料:

    《上海證券交易所權證管理暫行辦法》(2005年7月18)中并無有關創設的明確定義,也無行權價的明確定義,更無行權價或否調整的定義,為何創設,什么條件下創設,行權價如何浮動等等,均未作出明確規定。

    ……所有種類的權證的創設居然通用《關于證券公司創設武鋼權證有關事項的通知》(2005年11月22日)來辦理。據稱,上交所另還有《股改權證手工創設及注銷辦理流程指引》及《關于認沽權證行權等有關事項的通知》兩份文件,但從未向公眾公開,傳言只專門面向券商內部傳閱。上交所網站和百度均無法查閱。

    報道的作者由此質疑到:

    上交所和券商的天量創設,利用含糊消息、不實評論來配合瘋狂炒作,這就是它們的無上魔方。雖然施賭桌搶劫之實,卻照披合法外衣。一只權證可以炒出12000億的交易天量來,令券商強取豪奪數百億元的人民血汗,卻荒唐到僅憑三四個上交所自身制定的辦法和通知,而且其沒有任何明確的法律定義,也無需得到中國證監會和國務院的批準,就可以依此屠戮股民。

    事情到這里已經很清楚了,真相就是上交所配合證券公司炒作,為中小投資者設了一個騙局,幾百億的資金有去無回。雖說這些中小投資者本人應該對投機行為負責,但是整個事件中的種種不合理不合法之處,尤其是權證創設行為的隨意和無序近乎搶劫,不能不讓人感到現實的黑暗。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 07:41:57

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