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    經濟學是無用的

    作者: 阮一峰

    日期:2009年3月22日

    我的專業是經濟學,我現在不喜歡談論經濟學了,對它提不起興趣。

    并非我不關心經濟了,而是因為我覺得經濟學沒什么用。

    如果經濟學是有用的,那么為什么會發生金融危機呢?當前的金融危機是30年代“大蕭條”后最嚴重的一次,這是不是說明經過多年的發展,現代經濟學還是沒有什么進展?它既無法防止危機,又無法拯救經濟。到頭來,盡管擁有經濟學博士學位的人多如牛毛,我們還是免不了被大浪吞沒、在沙灘上等死的命運?

    經濟學其實從來就不是一門嚴格意義上的科學。

    有一個笑話說,經濟學第一定律就是“每個經濟學家都有一名意見相反的同行”。這句話真的一點沒有夸張。宏觀經濟學的幾乎所有問題,都存在爭論,這早已是公開的秘密了。從18世紀的亞當斯密開始,經濟學家就在爭論,政府有用還是市場有用?三個世紀過去了,直到今天都沒有答案。

    1974年,諾貝爾經濟學獎同時頒給了哈耶克(Fdiedrich Von Hayek)和繆爾達爾(Karl Gunnar Myrdal)。兩人的學術觀點幾乎完全相反,前者要求實行自由經濟,后者要求政府對經濟嚴格管制。觀點相反的人能夠同時獲得諾貝爾獎,這種事情大概只可能發生在經濟學上。

    米爾頓·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)就說過,長久以來一直有一種看法,經濟學更像一門藝術,而不像一門科學(參見《The Methodology of Positive Economics》)。那么,當你需要救命的時候,一門藝術能有多大的作用呢?

    另一方面,經濟學無疑還是有一些非常正確的內容的,比如經濟增長的最終動力來自于消費,如果消費不增長,只依靠投資和出口來拉動經濟,那么一定長久不了。但是,如果政府不愿意執行的話,再正確的內容也沒有用。

    如果政府一味地“加大投資、促進出口”,不斷地刺激經濟,一針又一針打強心針,你能有什么辦法?一切就像火車脫軌一樣,你只能看著它一頭扎下山崖,別無他法。所有政治家都覺得自己懂經濟;所有經濟學家都覺得只有參與政治,自己的主張才有機會實行。

    下面是一個經濟學無用的最新證明。三天前,美聯儲宣布了一項驚世駭俗的決定:將直接購買3000億美元長期國債、7500億美元的房產抵押債券和1000億美元的房貸機構債券,總計超過10000億美元。

    為什么說這個決定是驚世駭俗的?因為它實質上就是美聯儲創造貨幣,供美國政府消費,經濟學術語叫做“赤字貨幣化”,必然將導致美元貶值和通貨膨脹。美聯儲上一次這樣做,還是40年前的事情,但是那一次的目的只是為了穩定債券收益率,而不是為了給政府融資。

    這個決定是很危險的,無異于飲鴆止渴。雖然眼下可以用來穩定局面、刺激經濟,但是在長期中有很多消極的后果,為未來的通貨膨脹埋下種子。到時美聯儲為了穩定價格,必然將抬高利率,這又將使得經濟蕭條的周期進一步加長。

    中央銀行向政府融資,是經濟學的大忌。歷史上,為了防止政府隨意開動印鈔機,西方各國紛紛將發鈔權,從財政部轉移到中央銀行手里,并且立法保證中央銀行的獨立性,防止政府對中央銀行施加壓力。比如美國的《聯邦儲備法》就規定聯儲成員的任期長達14年,總統只有提名權,沒有撤換權,不得干預聯儲的決策。目的就是為了防止政府開支過度膨脹,然后發生“赤字貨幣化”的惡果。

    但是,法律千方百計避免的事情,最后還是發生了,這是為什么?不是因為無知,美聯儲里面都是世界第一流的經濟學家,他們比任何人都清楚后果。而是因為連他們都覺得必須要違背經濟學原理,不得不這樣做了,并且還假模假樣,美其名曰“定量寬松”(quantitative easing)。

    這一方面固然反映了,目前的美國危機深重、黔驢技窮;另一方面也反映了,經濟學理論的不嚴格,沒人真把它當回事。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 07:41:58

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