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    一切皆有可能

    作者: 阮一峰

    2009年10月14日

    1、

    請設想一下,如果早生200年,我們會過怎樣的生活?

    200年前,一個普通美國人的生活是下面這樣的。

    白天,他出門打獵、伐木或種地。在天黑之前,就必須趕回家,否則晚上根本看不見路,因為沒有路燈。回到家后,他就要拿出水桶,到附近的井、泉、水塘里打水,因為家里沒有自來水。打完水后,他就要在露天,支起爐火做飯。因為室內排煙太麻煩,做飯都在室外。

    吃完晚飯后,他點起柴火和蠟燭作為照明。但是,柴火有煙霧,而蠟燭是用鯨脂做的,成本很高,所以都不能提供長時間的照亮。如果沒有照明,那么晚上他干什么呢?事實上,這就是我對古人生活最無法想像的地方。唯一的可能就是,一到晚上,他真的不能干別的事情,只能早早睡覺。退一步說,即使他有錢點蠟燭,他也只有《圣經》可看,因為那時的小說和報紙都非常原始,不具備娛樂功能。另一方面,就像前面說的,由于沒有路燈,他也不可能出門參加社交活動,何況那時的城市夜晚根本沒有社交活動。

    此外,他也不能出遠門。因為除了牲畜以外,沒有任何交通工具。距離超過80英里(相當于二天的步行)的地方,都是非常遙遠的長途,必須提前做好精心準備。

    這就是1800年一個普通美國人的生活,距今不過只有200年而已。

    2、

    很快地,一切都開始發生變化,因為新技術出現了。18世紀90年代,英國人威廉·默多克發現,煤加熱時釋放的氣體可以燃燒,并產生明亮的黃色火焰。1796年,費城有人演示了煤氣燈的使用。1816年,巴爾的摩率先把煤氣燈用作路燈。到了19世紀30年代,美國城市都鋪設了地下管道系統,從煤氣站源源不斷地將煤氣傳送出去,城市的主要道路上都安裝了路燈。于是,籠罩城市的黑暗逐漸散去,夜生活開始出現。

    富有的家庭逐漸開始在家中安裝煤氣管道,用煤氣燈實現家庭照明。1851年,一個紐約人說:“城里的大房子幾乎沒有不裝煤氣的。”室內照明第一次變得這么高效和便宜,因此人們開始盡情地享受夜晚,入睡時間越來越晚,閱讀量比以前多得多。書籍、雜志和樂譜的銷量成倍地增長。

    與煤氣同時進入家庭的是中央供暖系統,蒸汽散熱機取代了原來的火爐,將熱汽送往房屋的每一個角落。嚴冬再也不是那么可怕了,哪怕室外是鵝毛大雪,一打開門就有滾滾熱浪撲面而來。這進一步改變了人們的生活,室內的文娛和社交活動變得越來越豐富多彩。

    廚房用的鑄鐵爐也得到改進,家庭主婦做飯方便多了,家家戶戶都在使用,再也不用去室外了。

    城市的排水系統開始鋪設。費城是美國第一個建立現代供水系統的城市。1832年,美國首次有了使用自來水的浴室,從此美國人才有可能每天洗澡。

    3、

    不過,真正改變人類社會的技術,是1784年瓦特設計出的新型蒸汽機。工程師們很快就開始嘗試,用蒸汽機作為各種機器的動力部分,創造出了驚人的結果。

    1804年2月21日,范德比爾特將高壓蒸汽機裝在機車上,成功地讓人類第一輛火車,沿著軌道運行起來,鐵路誕生了。

    1807年8月1日,羅伯特·富爾頓將蒸汽機與輪船的鏈條驅動連接在一起,造出了第一艘蒸汽輪船,成功地在哈德孫河上航行了32.5個小時,前進150英里。

    有了火車和輪船,人們可以在一天之內就出行100英里,天涯海角都不再遙遠。

    1830年,蒸汽機開始應用于印刷機,新的可旋轉印刷機一夜之間可以印出幾千份報紙,成本非常低廉。于是,1便士的小報《先驅報》迅速成為美國第一大報,謀殺案從此登上主流媒體的頭版。

    4、

    與蒸汽機技術同步發展的是電技術。

    最早的電產品是電報。第一次電報實驗出現在1804年,第一條投入營運的電報線路出現在1839年的英國。1837年,塞繆爾·莫爾斯在美國發明了”摩爾斯電碼“。

    此后,電報以驚人的速度獲得推廣。1850年前后,美國所有大城市都連上了電報系統。1866年,橫跨大西洋的海底電纜鋪設成功,歐洲和美國實現了即時通信。1872年,只需要幾個小時,一條消息就可以從舊金山傳到印度。

    新聞業從此變得空前強大,迅速成為社會生活的中心。另外一個意外不到的結果是,金融業也從此變得空前強大,因為金融家再不需要雇傭人跑步來報告股價了。

    5、

    總之,在19世紀的前半期,改變人類生活的奇跡紛紛出現:鐵路、電報、報紙、供暖系統、照明設施以及自來水。

    一進屋子,就有暖氣;一開水龍頭,就有熱水;一到晚上,有穩定的煤氣燈提供照明;一出門,可以選擇鐵路和輪船代步;每天的報紙源源不斷地刊登來自世界各地的最新電訊消息。

    看上去似乎沒有什么事是做不到的,一切皆有可能,人類的生活被徹底改變了。

    6、

    1844年,64歲的紐約前市長 Philip Hone 第一個使用了”往昔的好時光“(the good old days)這個詞。也就是說,就是在那個時候,人類發現自己成年后的世界,完全不同于自己出生時的世界。那位市長出生于1780年,那是一個社會發展近乎靜止的時代,祖父和孫子看到的差不多是同樣的世界。但是,新技術的問世,使得世界發生了快速的變化,每一代人看到的都是與上一代人截然不同的世界。

    我們都在一點點地變老,眼看著年輕時的新奇技術逐漸變得稀松平常。這是激動人心的體驗,但有時也是可怕的體驗。

    正是因為一切皆有可能、一切皆在變化,所以在急劇變動中長大的我們,好像就沒有什么特別確信的事情。唯一不變的,似乎就是變化本身。不知道這算不算技術改造人性。

    這些對人類社會影響重大的技術突破,起源于200年前,目前好像還在不斷加速中。技術改造歷史的趨勢,似乎越來越明顯。以前的歷史學家相信”地理決定論“,未來的歷史學家也許相信”技術決定論“。人類社會的形態是被技術發展決定的,這個命題值得深入探究。

    [說明] 本文是美國經濟史的學習筆記。文中的歷史資料主要來自約翰·戈登的《財富的帝國》(中信出版社,2007)一書。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 07:41:59

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