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    為什么世界上沒有安全的工作?

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    如果你經常使用互聯網,可能知道有一種東西叫做 Flash。

    它是一種軟件,用來制作網頁游戲、動畫,以及視頻播放器。只要觀看網絡視頻,基本都會用到它。

    多年前,它是最熱門的互聯網技術之一。如果不安裝 Flash,很多網站根本打不開。那時還流行用它制作動畫,隨便一個作品,就有幾十萬、上百萬的瀏覽量。電視臺甚至開辟欄目,播放網上流行的 Flash 動畫。各大互聯網公司都有專門的 Flash 工程師,還是屬于那種比較搶手、收入較高的工程師。我記得那個時候,社會上也有大量的 Flash 培訓班,它們的招生廣告都寫著保證就業。

    后來,Flash 就不行了。2010年,喬布斯宣布,蘋果手機不會使用 Flash,因為影響手機性能。再后來,新的技術興起,它就開始沒落了。BBC 發表一篇報道,名字就叫《Flash 還能活多久?》。話音剛落,一周后,這項技術的擁有者 Adobe 公司宣布,放棄 Flash 這個名字,軟件將重新定位,只用來制作動畫。

    2、

    我并不感嘆 Flash 這項技術的沒落,這也是很正常的事,而是感嘆那些從事 Flash 開發的工程師,他們該怎么辦呢?你在一個領域鉆研多年,都成了專家,突然之間那個領域過時了,你的所學所長沒人需要了,那將是怎樣的處境?

    那些年里,我在上海遇見過一個朋友。他開了一家軟件公司,專門面向海外市場開發 Flash 游戲。公司不大,十幾個人,那時正是最好的年景,每個月都有幾十萬、甚至上百萬人民幣進賬,看上去前景一片大好。

    可是,誰能想到 Flash 技術突然就會不行了呢?開始時,公司還能維持,后來手機游戲起來了,Flash 游戲的市場頓時萎縮。我見過他的招聘廣告,改招手機游戲的開發者。再后來,就再沒聽到過他的消息。

    當一種技術消亡的時候,與它相關的工作崗位也就消亡了。這種事情在技術行業特別多,因為技術的升級換代太快了。

    3、

    我再舉一個例子。

    蘋果手機出現之前,最流行的手機都使用諾基亞公司開發的塞班操作系統。你可能還記得,它的典型標志就是九宮格菜單。那時,塞班工程師也是非常搶手的,徹底掌握它那一套開發技術,我估計至少要一兩年時間。

    后來,智能手機流行,塞班一敗涂地。2010年,諾基亞宣布放棄塞班,改用微軟的操作系統。再后來,諾基亞自己也沒了,所有手機工程師都遣散了。我知道,諾基亞中國有一個資深工程師,選擇重進大學去讀 MBA 學位。

    4、

    試想一下,你花了多年的心血,孜孜不倦地投入和練習,終于掌握了一門賴以謀生的手藝,還進入了世界排名第一位的通信業跨國公司。就在你覺得人生終于有一點安全感的時候,一切就變了,幾年之間,曾經的巨無霸土崩瓦解,不僅你的職位沒了,更可怕的是,以前的產品已經沒人用了,全世界現在不生產任何塞班設備。你的手藝的價值變成了零。

    簡單說,可怕的不是你的工作沒了,而是你所在的那個行業沒了。

    一家公司從興盛到衰敗,只要兩三年時間,這樣的例子太多了。比爾蓋茨一直說:“微軟離破產只有18個月”,意思是說,只要做錯一個重大決策,微軟很快就會完蛋。作為一個打工者,公司的命運是你無法把控的。你應該做好準備,你服務的公司隨時可能收攤。只要進了大公司,職業生涯就安全了,這已經成了一種幻想,而且是很危險的幻想。不要說一輩子,一家公司能存續10年以上,都是少數的情況。

    有人說,可以再學習、然后重新就業啊,塞班不行了,可以學習蘋果手機開發。沒錯,說得完全正確。但是,你以前的積累沒了,需要從零開始。跟現在剛剛走出校門的學生,站在同一條起跑線上,學習同樣的東西。

    說實話,雖然你有幾年開發經驗,但很可能并沒有那些 20 歲的年輕人學得快。在一個高速變化的行業,經驗有時候不是幫助,而是障礙,因為以前的那套行不通了。

    退一步說,就算你重新學習了,但蘋果手機的開發也在變,你得不停地追趕新東西。一個人的人生,能經受得起多少次從零開始呢?

    5、

    “終身學習”這個詞完全沒錯,但是想通過“終身學習”保持職業競爭力,我覺得不太可能。

    程序員,乃至其他很多技術崗位,其實是青春飯。只有底層的技術,還有一些穩定性,越接近應用層,技術的升級換代就越快。你學會一門技術,然后吃上三十年,這種事情越來越少見了。更常見的是,幾年以后,你會的東西就淘汰了,你被迫重新學習新東西,或者重新就業。

    為什么中國很少見 35 歲以上的程序員?因為他們上學時學習的東西都淘汰了,必須和年輕人一起學習新技術。你很難比年輕人更有競爭力,其中最關鍵的是,雇傭剛走出校門的學生,比雇傭你便宜得多。

    其他行業的升級換代,不如技術行業那么夸張和激進。職業的安全感可以保持得更久一些,但遠不是高枕無憂。技術正在取代人力勞動,比如財務會計這樣的行業,隨著電子支付的興起,將來肯定不會需要這么多財務人員。“互聯網+”從某個方面說,就是使用互聯網技術取代一部分人力,更便宜地服務更多的顧客。

    6、

    世界上有沒有安全的工作?

    公務員可能比較安全,因為這個職業改變得很緩慢,而且沒有技術升級的壓力。醫生和律師,也比較安全,因為對于這些行業,經驗很重要,但技術正在把它們的成本降下來。廚師和物流,也是比較安全的行業,因為燒菜機器人和送貨機器人,實現成本很高,人力實現比較便宜,暫時不會被取代。但是低端的廚師和物流是純粹的體力勞動,非常辛苦,沒有進入門檻,供給非常大,拿不到高工資。

    由于機器人的購買成本昂貴,那些低端的體力崗位暫時得以保全。一旦工資開始上漲,企業為了降低成本,就會考慮機器人替代人工。一篇報道這樣寫道:

    “渣打銀行今年7月發布的《中國、東盟及前景》報告中,調查了珠三角地區200多家企業制造商,這些制造商們預計工資平均漲將或達7.2%。在這樣的背景下,希望使用更多機器人來代替工人的企業家不在少數。”

    “6月28日,在深圳舉辦的華南國際工業自動化展覽會上,幾乎每一個人展臺前都展示著正在工作中的機器人,一個個規律地進行著重復工作,動作整齊。多個行業的廠商前來尋找能夠給他們的生產線導入自動化設備的機器人企業,用那些不知疲倦的機器人代替需要吃飯、休息工人。”

    “廣東省是中國的大型制造業中心,也是勞動密集型企業聚集地。這些需要大量勞動力的工廠,正在努力提高自動化生產水平,減少對從事基礎勞動力的需求,而機器人的市場則正在越變越大。2013年以后,中國已連續四年成為全球最大的工業機器人市場,中國占全球市場的市場份額從2013年的1/5,到2016年已接近1/3。”

    一位名叫范伏清的企業家,談了他為什么更喜歡機器人。

    ”范伏清是貝爾順集團的董事長,他的公司主要制造和銷售骨傳導耳機等可穿戴設備,有8條生產線,近800名員工。范伏清說,去年看到一位家電企業老板的朋友引進去數臺機械手,提高了生產效率、降低了部門崗位的人工需求的同時,還拿到了60萬元的政府補貼,他今年也決定效仿。……如果機械手成功安裝,范伏清的每條生產線可以節省30名以上的工人,這意味著每個月能省下24萬元的現金工資,以及60名員工的食宿成本。“

    最終來說,制造業和服務業都將高度自動化,它們現在吸收的大部分勞動力都將失業。

    人類社會的就業形態正在發生深刻的改變,“終生職業”越來越少了。每個人都應該盡早打算,如果明天你的職業消失了,你該怎么辦?

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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