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    那些無用的人

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    《人類簡史》(中信出版社,2014)是以色列學者尤瓦爾·赫拉利寫的暢銷書,主要講人類這個物種(即智人)的歷史。作者完全用自己的觀點解釋歷史,表達他對人類歷史的個人看法。

    最驚人的一個觀點,大概是他對人類的前途相當悲觀,認為人類可能即將滅絕。

    全書最后一章的標題,叫做《智人末日》。作者感嘆道,人類社會存在了七萬年,真正的大發展只是最近兩三百年。但是,再過一千年,人類是否還會存在,已經很可疑了。

    “今天,人類正在讓許多物種滅絕,甚至可能包括自己。如果今天發生核災而讓世界末日降臨,人類將毀滅,而老鼠和蟑螂很可能繼續生存下去。或許6500萬年后,會有一群高智商的老鼠心懷感激地回顧人類造成的這場災難。“

    ”我們還有多久時間?沒有人真正知道。如果智人的歷史確實即將謝幕,我們這些最后一代的智人,或許該花點時間回答最后一個問題:我們究竟想要變成什么?”

    2、

    尤瓦爾·赫拉利認為,人類可能滅絕的根本原因,在于技術的高速發展。

    技術帶來了現代化生活,也導致了前所未有的危機。別的不說,眼下的危機就是,短期內就會有大量失業出現,許多人將變得毫無用處。

    “技術造成的人力精簡,將在今后5年內,導致全球發達國家失去710萬個工作崗位,但在科技、專業服務及媒體領域,將創造210萬個工作崗位。兩相抵銷之下,未來五年內,將會凈損失500萬個工作崗位,其中以行政工作與白領階級為主。” ---- 摘自世界經濟論壇《未來的工作》,2016

    上一次的工業革命,體力勞動被替代了,比如,水車替代了拉磨,汽車替代了馬車。這一次的信息技術革命,智力勞動將被替代,計算機替代我們做計算和判斷。

    體力崗位沒了,人類可以從事智力崗位。可是,智力崗位也沒了,人類去干什么呢?

    3、

    2016年5月,美國達拉斯發生襲警案,一名狙擊手放冷槍,打死了5個警察。最后,他被包圍在一片建筑群里面,但不知道他的確切位置。

    警方就派出一個遙控機器人,在建筑群里巡查,一發現目標,就扔出一顆炸彈,一下子就把罪犯炸死了。整個行動高效、快速,警方沒有任何流血。更重要的是,這是歷史上第一次,機器人警察殺死人類。

    可以想象,隨著犯罪行為的增加,以及罪犯裝備的升級,機器人警察將會得到推廣,取代人類警察打擊犯罪。人類士兵也會被取代,以后的戰爭就是機器人戰爭。

    《人類簡史》的作者公開說:

    “未來可能不再需要司機。我們已經有了無人駕駛的汽車。他們不喝酒,不疲憊,比人類駕駛還要安全。當所有的汽車都變成了無人駕駛,我們就可以把所有的車輛聯網,形成一個車聯網。這樣的話,交通警察可能也不需要了,因為所有的車都可以通過這張網絡獲取道路信息。”

    無人駕駛不僅會讓司機和交警失業,而且長遠來看,會消滅整個運輸物流行業的工作崗位。比如,既然車輛可以自動到達目的地,那么送貨的快遞小哥也不需要了。

    4、

    人的價值體現在他/她的工作成果。如果有些人根本找不到工作,他們的價值體現在哪里呢?

    過去,工業革命吸收了農業釋放的數十億人力,將人類的勞動形態從田野和作坊,變成了工廠和辦公室;現在,工廠和辦公室開始釋放人力,又有什么行業可以吸收他們呢?

    越來越多的人將會發現,他們根本不可能找到工作。智力和體力兩方面,機器都比人類能干。你要么比機器更能干,要么比機器更便宜,否則你怎么跟機器競爭工作崗位呢?

    5、

    有人說,技術會創造新工作,只要不斷學習新的技能,就不用擔心自己會被淘汰。這對一部分人也許可以,但對大部分人這樣要求是不現實的。

    “世界經濟論壇統計,目前的小學生長大后,65%會從事現在還不存在的工作。孩子們在中學或者大學學到的大多數東西,等到40、50歲的時候可能都會變得無足輕重。如果他們還希望繼續保住工作,那就得不斷地改造自己,而且頻率得越來越快才行。”

    保持就業競爭力所要求的那種“終身學習”,根本不是業余時間看看書、聽聽講座的學習強度,而是遠超這個,需要你全部時間、全身心地投入,學到筋疲力盡的那種。你要求一個人離開學校以后,比在學校里面還要勤奮、還要努力,對于大多數人來說,這怎么可能!

    不是每個人都善于學習,更不是每個人都具有學習的意愿。大多數人只希望生活舒適,不愿意動腦筋,去搞懂那些抽象的公式。而且,要求40、50歲的人跟剛走上社會的年輕人一樣拼搏,也不現實。如果終生學習是唯一的就業出路,對于大多數人來說,就是沒有出路。

    將來,不僅可能出現大量的失業(unemployed),還可能出現人們無法再就業(unemployable),因為他們沒用了。低技能的工作,都自動化了;高技能的工作要求多年的學習和艱苦的投入。那些無法就業的人退休還太年輕,從零開始再學習又太老。

    6、

    尤瓦爾·赫拉利說,人工智能取代了那些簡單技能的工作崗位以后,人類當中會出現一個龐大的、無用的無產階級。

    “未來,人類可能會分化為兩個主要的等級:一個全新的更先進的精英階級,很聰明,很富有,有更好的基因和更長的壽命;還有一個全新的一無用處的無產階級,他們將越來越窮地等待死亡,可能變成沒有工作、沒有目標、整日靠吸毒度日、戴著VR頭盔消磨時光的烏合之眾。”

    人類社會的政治和經濟結構,都會因此被顛覆。

    當代國家是建立在人對國家有用的基礎上的,大部分人的角色是工人和士兵。如果這些角色被機器取代,那么底層的人們對國家來說,也就不再重要了。國家很可能會忽視他們的需求,只是出于社會穩定的目的,提供基本的生活資料。而人們也比以往更依賴政府,因為如果政府停止救濟,他們就無法養活自己。

    尤瓦爾·赫拉利將這種情景,列為21世紀最悲慘的威脅之一。

    “隨著人工智能變得越來越聰明,會有更多的人被擠出就業市場。沒人知道大學該學什么,因為沒人知道20歲的時候學的東西到了40歲還有沒有用。等你知道的時候,已經有數十億人變得一點用都沒有了。這不是偶然,而是必然。”

    現在斷言,人類在未來幾百年里要滅亡,或許還太早。但是,人類社會即將發生天翻地覆的變化,卻是不爭的事實。這種變化已經開始了,我們這代人就會親歷這場變化。它也許是人類最后一次的技術革命,希望你能夠成為這場革命的幸存者。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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