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    白領崗位的消亡

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    2016年初,咨詢公司埃森哲(Accenture)公布了一項調查。

    他們找到17個行業的1700個白領人士,問了同樣的一個問題。

    “你覺得計算機對你構成威脅嗎?”

    結果令人震驚。35%的人回答 Yes。他們覺得在未來,機器可以自動完成他們現在的工作,因此職位可能保不住。最焦慮的就是科技行業的白領,回答 Yes 的人高達50%,其次是銀行業,比例是 49%。

    一位評論家一針見血地指出,技術革命進入新階段。以前,消失的是依靠體力的職位,現在就連一部分依靠智力的職位也在消失。

    “以前,技術革命只是對藍領工人不利,貿易全球化和自動化技術使得低技能工人,失去工作或者一直拿著低工資。而現在,技術革命開始威脅那些有技能的人了,人工智能、大數據、辦公自動化正在快速地消滅辦公室職位。”

    2、

    白領,一般是指那些有技能的人士,比如管理人員、財務人員、金融業者、律師等等,勞動主要以智力投入為主。通常需要坐在辦公室里,衣著整潔,穿白襯衫,所以叫做白領。

    以前,白領是令人羨慕的工作,家長期待自己的孩子成為白領。可是,信息技術高速發展,機器的判斷能力和處理能力,使得很多辦公室職位變得不必要了。

    美國曾經有一種工作,叫做“稅務顧問”(tax consultant)。因為稅法非常復雜,普通人根本搞不清楚,所以你會請他幫你報稅。這樣就不用自己填寫復雜的表格,而且他還會告訴你各種節稅訣竅。可是,現在有報稅網站和軟件,你只要在電腦前回答幾個問題,電腦就會告訴你應該如何報稅,簡單、快速又便宜。那些稅務顧問發現,自己沒法與軟件競爭,只能紛紛轉業。這個職業在美國已經開始消失了。

    我再舉一個更常見的例子。銀行職員(比如柜臺操作員)以前是一份可靠的工作,有穩定的薪水可以養家。現在不是了。如今,你去銀行存款或者取款,會找柜臺人員嗎?不會,大多數時候你直接去 ATM 機。24小時服務的 ATM,正在取代一天工作8小時的柜臺人員。

    如果你說,柜臺操作員不算嚴格意義的白領,那么信貸員算不算?銀行都有一個信貸部門,這是銀行利潤的關鍵來源。信貸員負責尋找貸款對象和審核貸款,業績往往與貸款掛鉤,如果做得好,收入非常可觀。

    可是,現在有了“自動貸款”,比如支付寶的“借唄”業務,它會根據消費者的購買歷史、信用記錄和支付能力,自動計算出每個人不一樣的貸款額度。你只要點一下同意按鈕,貸款一秒鐘就到帳。整個過程完全自動化,根本不需要信貸員參與。將來每個人、每家企業的數據都儲存在數據庫里,計算機自動評估能不能向你貸款、可以貸多少,那么誰還需要信貸員?

    如果仔細考察,你會發現很多銀行職位都有消失的危險,比如風險控制、信用記錄、外匯交易等等,軟件都可以完成。對于現在這些職位上的白領人員來說,這是非常可怕的壓力。

    3、

    未來什么工作才能算白領?說實話,沒有人知道。因為很難估計技術會發展到什么地步。厲以寧教授最近說,將來沒有白領和藍領之分。

    “以后很多工作會由機器人去做,所以藍領和白領的界限將來會逐步消失。當人們都在計算機邊上的時候,你能說誰是白領、誰是藍領嗎?說不出來的,這個界限在逐漸消失,可能十年、二十年以后就沒有了。大家都在運用計算機操縱機器人。”

    如果你的職位有可能被計算機取代,一個現實的問題是,你該怎么辦?跟機器競爭是不可能的,你沒它可靠,沒它耐勞,沒它便宜。

    許多人說,可以接受培訓,學習新的技能,實現人生轉型。這實際上很難做到。比如,現在很熱門的一種職位,叫做“數據科學家”或者“數據工程師”。但是,一個裝配線工人,不太可能經過幾個月的培訓,就轉變為一個數據工程師。讓我這么說吧,不僅他不太可能,你也不太可能。任何沒有專業基礎的人轉變為數據從業人員的機會,就是四個字:“微乎其微”。

    技術革命對人類社會的形態,已經產生了深刻的改變。從上個世紀90年代開始,低技能勞動者的報酬一直無法提高。現在,輪到白領階層了。他們已經或者即將發現,自己處于掙扎之中,沒有職業前景,工作報酬同藍領工人一樣陷入泥潭,無法提高。對于整個社會來說,技術造成的貧富差距將日益嚴重。這種趨勢已經在世界許多國家出現,政府完全束手無策。

    4、

    那么,有沒有計算機不能取代的工作,所需要的技能是計算機無法學會的?

    作家吳曉波把難以被機器替代的能力,稱為“柔軟的能力”。目前看上去,有三種能力,機器不大可能實現。

    (1)人性化和人格魅力。機器提供的服務是沒有人性的,也不會有人格魅力,更不會感動人心。這注定了,有些感受是機器無法提供的。最簡單的一個例子,老奶奶在街上突然摔倒了,你會感到心痛和驚慌,要是一臺機器突然故障了,你大概不會對機器產生同情心。所以,一個富有人格魅力和人性的人,在計算機主導的時代,是有優勢的;相反的,一個沒有個性、人云亦云、千面一律、會消失在流水線上的人,則天然具有競爭劣勢。

    (2)創意。計算機只能根據算法,做出下一步行為,沒法超出算法的范圍。這意味著,只要掌握了算法,就掌握了計算機的一舉一動。人類則是難以預測的,常常會有天馬行空的創意。機器最難以與人類競爭的,就是創造力。目前,還沒有一種軟件,能夠寫出一部人類愛看的小說,估計將來也難有。另外,科學家曾經有過爭論,計算機會不會“頓悟”?目前看上去,大概也是不會的。

    (3)決策和領導力(即企業家能力)。美國經濟學家熊彼得曾經說過,生產力增加的主要原因,除了資本和勞動力,就是企業家能力。一個優秀的領導者,可以團結所有資源,創造出超額利潤,最典型的就是喬布斯那樣的人物。計算機沒有辦法團結領導一群人,齊心協力完成一個使命。

    作為個人來說,人生規劃的時候,應該盡量發展這些能力,才能避免與機器“搶工作”。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:48

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