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    未來的娛樂業

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    2012年1月份,美國風險投資家 Paul Graham 發表了一封公開信,題目很夸張,叫做“摧毀好萊塢”(kill Hollywood)。他希望創業公司投入娛樂行業的創新,跟好萊塢一比高下,甚至取代它。

    當時,我讀到這封信,心想怎么可能!

    好萊塢代表了整個電影工業,已經發展了一百多年,高度成熟,怎么可能在以后幾十年里面被取代,難道未來的人們不看電影?而且,那時中國的電影市場剛剛起步,電影在國內完全是朝陽產業。

    Paul Graham 的核心觀點是下面這句話。

    “電影行業正在死亡,互聯網蓬勃興起。未來會有更好的娛樂方式,讓人們樂在其中,殺死電影和電視。”

    他的意思是,未來會有比電影更有趣、更好玩的娛樂方式,導致電影消失。但是,這種新的娛樂方式是什么,他沒說,說實話也不知道,只是相信一定會出現。

    最近,我經常想起這句話,感到他的預言正在變成現實。我似乎已經有點知道了,比電影更好的娛樂是什么。

    2、

    請先思考一個問題。

    電影與旅行的差異是什么?

    回答是,電影是被動體驗,旅行是主動體驗。

    電影(包括電視)需要觀眾坐在屏幕前,從頭到尾看完節目。整個過程中,你都是被動的接收者,導演和編劇安排你看什么,你就必須看什么。基本上,電影的模式就是你坐在那里,等著看接下來什么情節發生。

    旅行則是你擁有選擇權,每一步都由自己決定。電影讓你“看到”他人的生活,旅行則是讓你“親歷”他人的生活。所以,它們不能互相替代。電影告訴你一個巴黎的故事,旅行讓你走在巴黎的大街上,那是不一樣的體驗。

    那么,能不能有一種新的娛樂方式,做到“電影 + 旅行”?我的意思是,它把電影和旅行結合為一體,讓你在電影中旅行,在旅行中“親歷”電影。

    3、

    上周,我在玩一個叫做《刺客信條》的電子游戲。我扮演一個法國大革命時期的刺客,去完成一系列任務。

    我操縱著游戲,在巴士底獄、凡爾塞宮、塞納河、巴黎圣母院這些地方奔走,與路易十六、拿破侖、羅伯斯庇爾交談。有那么一刻,當我在三級會議的會場外面,被皇家士兵攔住,一輛雙輪馬車擦身而過,揚起一片灰塵。我的頭頂突然落下一陣水滴,那是洗衣女工晾塞在二樓窗外的破衣服。我不禁有點恍惚,仿佛身處1789年的巴黎。

    (圖片:電子游戲《刺客信條:大革命》的截圖)

    我覺得,游戲中的巴黎比真實的巴黎,更有巴黎的感覺。我去過歐洲,說實話,走在歐洲的馬路上,跟走在國內的馬路,沒有太大的區別,無非就是人家的馬路更窄、高樓更矮,建筑更漂亮而已。但是,這個游戲讓我有強烈的身處異國他鄉、風云際會的感覺。現在,我對巴黎大革命有了更深切的理解和體驗,好像親身參加了一遍。

    計算機圖形技術發展到今天,已經可以亂真。肉眼完全無法分辨,哪張是真實的照片,哪張是計算機生成的圖片。計算機已經可以模擬一個虛擬世界,視覺上跟真實世界一模一樣,而且像素更細膩、色彩更鮮艷,更討人喜歡。

    (圖片:計算機圖形已經可以亂真)

    以前,計算機圖像還只能在二維平面呈現,現在 VR 頭盔出現了,讓虛擬圖像變成了一個三維立體的空間,敞開在你的周圍,等待你的進入,而且你知道后面會有一個非常精彩的故事等著你。這是不是比電影或旅行更吸引人?

    我并不是說,VR 游戲一定會取代電影或旅行,而是說它能提供電影或旅行沒有的體驗。這里的重點是,VR 游戲是一種可以在里面玩的電影,或者說可以讓你在故事里面旅行。用戶有著無與倫比的“參與感”。

    美國科幻電視劇《西部世界》(WestWorld)更進一步,描述了一個大樂園,重現了十九世紀的西部拓荒生活,里面都是3D打印出來的智能機器人陪著游客玩。游客分辨不出,誰是真人,誰是機器人,除非事前知道。

    4、

    一般來說,“參與感”讓一種活動變得更好玩。電子游戲和旅行讓人產生“參與感”,電影、電視、劇場演出則屬于無法參與,只能坐在舞臺下觀看。

    娛樂業的發展史,就是讓用戶越來越多地參與進來。舉例來說,你無法參與演唱會,只能坐在臺下聽歌星唱,人家唱什么,你聽什么。于是出現了卡拉OK,讓普通人也過一把高歌一曲的癮,結果卡拉OK變成了比演唱會更大的行業。廣場舞也是如此,自己跳舞比看別人跳舞過癮多了。

    為了讓球迷參與球賽,出現了足球彩票。為了讓觀眾參與網絡視頻,出現了彈幕。就連電子游戲,都在尋求玩家更深程度的參與。2016年的實境游戲“Pokemon Go”,要求玩家走上馬路尋找寶貝,結果風靡了世界。你要玩這個游戲,就必須出門,在馬路上掏出手機,到處尋找線索。你身邊的真實世界就是游戲世界,你在游戲里遇到的人,就是在你對面的真實的人。

    (圖片:Pokemon Go 為現實世界的每樣東西附加游戲屬性)

    任何一種活動,可以讓普通人參與進來的門檻越低、程度越深,就越會大受歡迎。迪斯尼樂園總結出來的一條經營原則就是,“如果娛樂節目少一些被動性和純觀賞性,多一些親身參與,游客就會停留地久一些。”

    一句話,娛樂業的發展方向,就是讓消費者更多地參與進來。現在的電影模式做不到這一點,所以會被淘汰;VR 游戲允許消費者全身心參與,這才是未來的方向,VR 電影應該很快就會出現。

    5、

    馬云說,十年以后中國最大的兩個產業,是健康產業(Health)和文娛產業(Happy),簡稱“雙H產業”。前者讓人民更健康,后者讓人民更快樂。

    目前,人民關注的重點,還是生存條件和經濟收入,等到這個階段過去以后,就會改為關注生存質量。那時候,就會要求更高品質的娛樂活動。

    未來的人們一定不會滿足于,跑到電影院買票看電影,或者坐在電視機前,按著遙控器,一個個更換頻道。他們要求“參與感”。現在的大城市里面,“密室逃脫”游戲廣受歡迎,就證明了這一點。

    (圖片:密室逃脫是年輕人最喜歡的娛樂消費之一)

    也許未來,你在網上訂購了一段情節,就能進入一個全新的故事世界,這個世界有可能是真實的,也有可能是 VR 的,對你來說都一樣,因為它們看上去幾乎完全相同。你只知道,你在街頭遇到的每個人、每件事,都是游戲安排好的。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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