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    技術教育的興起

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    有一年,我在臺灣環島旅行。

    花蓮的海邊,我遇到一對臺灣青年夫妻,帶著女兒在海灘上玩。我們聊了起來。

    當時,我還在高校當老師。他們問我,是否覺得臺灣的孩子很幸福。我說為什么?爸爸指著女兒說:“這些小孩沒有升學壓力啊。”

    這倒是事實。臺灣有100多所高校,可是生育率不斷萎縮,導致很多大學招不到學生。有一篇報道說:

    2006年,臺灣考生每科只需考到15分就可以上大學,2007年這個紀錄被打破,4科加起來只需18分,2008年更夸張,總分7分就能當大學生了。7分就能上大學,因此成為年度笑話。有人調侃:“即使什么都不會,選擇題全部猜 C 都能上不錯的學校吧!”

    但是,這不能解釋一個現象。我想了一會,對那位爸爸道出我的疑惑:“如果考大學如此容易,為什么臺灣有那么多補習班呢?”

    沒到過臺灣的人,想象不到補習班可以做成一個這么大的產業:臺灣最熱鬧的商業街上,都是補習班的霓虹廣告;補習班老師是高收入行業,名師就是富豪,也是全社會的知名人物。我不明白,為什么補習班有那么多學生,明明沒有升學壓力啊?

    爸爸答不出來,想了半天,只說“父母都希望孩子出人頭地啊”。

    2、

    旅行回來后,我發現大陸的補習班行業也蓬勃興起了,比臺灣有過之而無不及。

    每個居住小區的周圍,都有好幾家補習班公司,招生對象從兩三歲的娃娃到十幾歲的中學生,全部通吃。補習科目無所不包,從語數外到藝術和體育,寒暑假還提供美日歐的游學項目,供家長選擇。每到夜晚,燈火通明,門口都是接送孩子的家長。

    我們的補習班公司,還上市了。從最早的新東方,到后來的達內科技、正保教育、學而思、51Talk都是績優公司,在紐約交易所上市,受到投資者追捧。后面還有一大批培訓類創業公司,排隊等著上市。這在全世界恐怕也是絕無僅有。

    3、

    歷史最悠久、市場需求最大的培訓項目,就是外語培訓。

    我讀中學時,同學里面流行上《新概念英語》和口語補習班。到了大學,流行的是托福和 GRE 補習班。大家認定,英語好,人生才有出路。

    那時,外企的收入高,比國企要高好幾倍,還有出國的機會。如果能拿到美國大學的獎學金,那就是“魚躍龍門,過而為龍”了。大家都想走這條路。馬克思的名言“外語是人生斗爭的武器”,是大家的座右銘。

    外語改變了很多中國人的人生。馬云說,他小時候整天就在西湖邊,跟外國人搭訕練習口語,因此認識了澳大利亞的一家人,受邀出國去澳大利亞待了一個月。他大學讀的是英語系,第一個創業項目是翻譯社,1995年第一次去美國,在西雅圖見到了互聯網,覺得這玩意有前途,開始互聯網創業。也是因為英語,結識了雅虎的創始人楊致遠,得到了一筆對于阿里巴巴最為關鍵的投資。

    4、

    中國人對于英語的學習熱情,造就了新東方這樣的補習班巨頭。但是,20年過去了,我漸漸發現,英語學習沒有以前那么重要了。

    一方面,國內的機會和收入越來越多,不比國外少。更重要的是,技術的快速發展,使得語言的壁壘越來越低,甚至消失。

    最早的時候是詞典軟件,只要鼠標一指,就有中文解釋,省得查字典了。后來有了翻譯軟件,都不需要鼠標指來指去了,直接把全文翻譯成中文。到了現在,機器翻譯已經很可靠了,語法規則的文獻,機器翻譯的質量接近人工翻譯。

    最新的技術成果是,谷歌公司推出了一款實時翻譯耳機 Buds,已經上市了。你把耳機戴上,對方說英語,你會實時聽到翻譯后的中文;你用中文回答,對方會聽到英文!有了這個東西,未來還有必要去上口語補習班嗎?

    我曾經一個人在摩洛哥旅行兩周。當地的官方語言是阿拉伯語,上層人士說法語,底層民眾說柏柏語,我就會一點英語,大多數時候都無法進行語言交流。但是居然沒遇到一點困難,順利地把這個非洲國家玩了一圈,還在撒哈拉沙漠住了兩個晚上。這要感謝兩樣東西,一是遍及摩洛哥全國的3G網絡(華為的功勞),可以隨時查交通和酒店的信息,二是準確的地圖軟件,使我不用問路。

    (圖片說明:我在撒哈拉沙漠住的營地)

    技術使得學好外語,不再那么重要了。對于多數人,這不啻于一個福音,因為外語學習非常耗費生命。

    2004年,新加坡領導人李光耀承認了一個錯誤。獨立之初,他決定所有新加坡人不管智商如何,都要學習兩門語言,一門是英語,另一門是該人的母語(馬來語或漢語)。后來,他發現這個決定有大問題,熟練掌握兩門語言,對于人民的要求實在太高了。大多數人根本做不到雙語,哪怕學習多年英語,一開口還是結結巴巴,詞不達意。強迫所有人學英語,實在是浪費國民的生命。于是,這一年新加坡政府改變規定,只要求人民學習一門語言即可。

    5、

    隨著外語培訓的重要性下降,我認為,培訓的重頭將轉為技術培訓。以前大家排隊去上外語補習班,將來會排隊去上技術補習班。

    原因就是技術正變得比語言更重要。回到20年前,掌握流利的英語,你會比別人有更多的機會;如今,輪到了技術。誰掌握了技術,誰就有大把的機會。許多家長已經意識到了這一點,小朋友從小不僅要教 ABC,還要教一點編程。

    未來的形勢遠比我們想象的嚴峻,技術會取代越來越多的人工。展望未來,大部分人,甚至90%以上的人,終其一生只是在社會的底層掙扎,拿著小康或比溫飽線略高的工資。

    只有技術,才有可能讓你翻身。比特幣就是一個例子,過去幾年中,價格上漲了幾百萬倍。我知道的許多技術人都通過比特幣發了財,而這只是技術帶來的財富浪潮之中的一個突出案例。如果你了解技術,你就會看到有這樣的機會。現在看上去,只有技術才能提供這樣的從底層快速上升的機會。

    我有一種悲觀的預感。未來只有兩種途徑可以改變人生,一種是學習技術,另一種是購買彩票。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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