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    技術的邊界

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    去年,網上流傳一則趣聞

    美國圣昆廷州立監獄安排囚犯學習編程,完成學習的犯人出獄后,沒有一個人重新犯罪被抓回監獄。

    一位剛剛出獄的囚犯說:“太可怕了,我寧愿在外面餓死也不想再進去學編程了。”

    后面那句話是網友杜撰的,但是程序員圈子里,大家依然把它當作笑話轉發。“你看,編程多痛苦,還不如坐牢呢。”

    我一直忘不了這個段子,覺得它是一個很好的象征:當代社會就像一座機器組成的監獄,學會技術可以擺脫牢房。

    2、

    人類已經不再生活在大自然了,而是生活在一種機器環境:住宅、交通、醫療、食物……就連水和空氣都是機器提供的。如果機器出故障,人類頓時就有危機。就像病人依賴呼吸機和心臟起博器,人類也依賴著機器。整個社會已經機器化了。

    這沒有問題,我們理應享受技術成果。問題是,技術正變得越來越先進,也越來越難懂,大多數人已經不能夠理解技術了。

    多少人能說清,手機通信的原理是什么:為什么對著空氣發送信號,就能被幾千公里以外的另一個人實時收到,而不會發錯對象?或者,為什么掃描槍掃一下手機二維碼,你的資金就轉到了商家的賬上?

    我們已經不懂了,技術如何達成這一切。我們只是按照別人設計好的方式,像傻瓜一樣地使用它。對于大多數人來說,技術已經成了一種魔法。我們使用技術,然后像看魔法一樣,看著機器變出神奇的結果。由于熟視無睹,我們都不感到驚奇了。

    我們其實已經生活在一個魔法世界里面,享受著各種技術發明,它們的神奇程度是最大膽的想象力都沒有預測到的。

    小時候,我讀過的第一本科幻小說是《小靈通漫游未來》。書里說,未來的人們都帶著一種神奇的手表。

    “那手表既沒有時針、分針、秒針,也沒有齒輪和發條,只不過是一塊小小的電視熒光屏,上面寫著幾個數字:“11:23:40”,也就是11時23分40秒,那表示秒的數字在不斷變化。當40秒變成60秒時,那23分也一下子變成了24分。

    我想,居然會有這樣奇妙的手表? ”

    這是前一代人想象中的未來,現在看上去顯得非常過時。

    技術的進步速度,遠遠超過人們的想象。我們生活在一個機器世界里,但又不懂這些機器,這是一種怎樣的處境?現在的模式是,我們花錢購買服務,讓懂的人或公司來操作和維護機器。但是,如果有一天,你請不到人,或者機器索性壞了,你不就困在了機器組成的監獄里了嗎?

    3、

    我媽媽剛開始上網時,有一個問題讓她很困惑:為什么網站要求輸入用戶名和密碼,這是什么東西?

    她問我:“用戶名就是身份證上的名字嗎?密碼是不是身份證號?”我跟她解釋:“網站通過用戶名才能知道你是誰,密碼則是為了防止別人冒充你。它們都可以自己設定。”我媽似懂非懂,為什么要自己為自己起名呢……

    我媽有了用戶名以后,可以自己在“某寶”上買東西了。過了一陣子,她來找我,說用戶名不管用了。我過去一看,原來她用這個名字在”某東“登錄,怎么都登錄不上去。她不太明白,為什么在一個網站申請了用戶名,到另一個網站就必須再申請一次?

    我有時想,等到了我媽的年齡,我是否也會對那時的新技術一頭霧水,像看天書一樣,不懂如何使用。

    現在的大城市,上下班高峰時段,有時你有錢也打不到出租車,必須使用手機 App 才能叫到車。這對于那些不會使用那些 App 叫車的老年人,真是一種磨難。這就是我們所有人的處境:如果你不理解技術,不會使用它,就麻煩了。

    4、

    我們的社會已經如此依賴技術,為了適應外界,你至少要知道如何使用它。糟糕的是,技術已經變得如此復雜,沒有人能夠全部搞懂。系統越來越復雜,分工越來越細,一個人已經不可能從頭到尾掌握整個系統了。

    就拿計算機來說,從底層CPU芯片一直到上層的圖形界面,中間大概依次有幾十層(甚至上百層)的操作接口,要想全部掌握這些層,幾乎是不可能的。有人總結過,單單是“網站搜索”這個簡單操作,中間就有24個環節。也就是說,你要搞懂這個操作,就有這么多東西要學習。

    現在的情況是:沒有人能夠理解全部的技術,每個人只懂自己的那一小塊。根本無法預測和判斷,某個領域的技術發展會引起整個系統怎樣的變化。五年規劃或十年規劃,那種整體的準確安排和控制,就更談不上了。

    技術已經到了這樣一個地步:我們走一步看一步,誰也不知道十年后,技術會突破到什么程度。

    5、

    技術最終會把人類帶到哪里呢?

    我想我們已經完全不知道了。人類一項又一項地發明新技術,對于新技術帶來的后果,已經失去了控制,聽任它帶著我們向前走。

    小說《冰與火之歌》里面,寒冷的北方有一道絕境長城。外面就是危險地帶,任何人不得跨越。我最近常想,技術有沒有邊界呢?一旦接近“絕境長城”,我們會自覺停在那里,不再往下發展嗎?

    舉例來說,人工智能領域有一個概念,叫做“終極智能”。意思是,當機器的智能達到這種程度時,就不需要人類再做發明創造了,因為機器自己就會發明創造。如果這種“終極智能”真的可能實現,技術要不要去實現它呢?

    目前來看,技術完全是野蠻生長,沒有辦法遏制它的發展。哪怕某種技術最終給人類帶來毀滅性影響,我們也無能為力。只要技術有能力做到的事情,最終都會做到。人類(嚴格地說是某些人)最終將擁有可怕的力量。

    現在的技術發展,好比隨意地往花盆里面扔種子。原意是種花,但是長出來的可能是一棵樹,完全超過了花盆的容量。我們能做的,就是看著它長啊長。一旦植物長得太大,超過了花盆所能承受的重量,整個花盆就將傾覆。

    6、

    最后,我想到了另一個笑話。

    一架飛機即將起飛,里面坐的都是各大軟件公司的老板。這時,機長問了他們一個問題:如果這架飛機的控制軟件是你的公司寫的,你還敢坐嗎?

    除了一個人,其他人都表示不敢坐。唯一那位愿意繼續留在飛機上的乘客,機長走到他的面前,欽佩地說:“看來您對自己公司的軟件非常有信心。”那位老板搖搖頭:“不是啦,我很清楚,如果你們用了我們的軟件,這架飛機根本飛不起來。”

    第一次聽到的時候,我的反應是這不是笑話。一架民航客機有100多噸,就懸浮在空中,上不著天,下不著地,機上乘客的性命完全取決于技術,我們其實真的是把生命托付給軟件公司。

    如今,我的這種想法更強烈了。它其實是一個隱喻,整個人類正坐在一架軟件駕駛的飛機里面,只能祈禱軟件運行永遠不發生錯誤。一旦發生問題,人類就會墜機。

    物理學告訴我們,要想讓飛機在高空不掉下來,就必須高速前進,不能夠失去速度。技術也是如此,為了讓現有的技術更可靠,只有發展更先進的技術。人類已經走上了一條無法回頭的道路,只能提速,無法減速。

    一個依賴技術的高科技、高度自動化的社會,也是一個非常脆弱的社會。有人說,一旦出現危機(比如全球變暖或戰爭),人類就會減緩(甚至凍結)技術發展的速度。錯!危機只會進一步加速技術發展,而不會減緩。技術的危機只能用更好的技術解決,否則人類社會就有立刻崩潰的危險。但是, 高速公路上不能剎車,意味著什么?

    20世紀初,美國經濟學家熊彼特說過一句名言:“資本主義經濟最終將因為無法承受其快速膨脹帶來的能量,而崩潰于自身的規模。” 我覺得,技術可能也是如此,高速發展所蘊含的巨大能量,最終將把人類社會帶到難以預測的脆弱狀態。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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