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    你的鞋都比你聰明

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    2017年2月,世界移動通訊大會(MWC)在巴塞羅那召開,今年的演講嘉賓是日本首富軟銀集團 CEO 孫正義。

    他的演講主題是《為什么人工智能肯定會超越人類?》。他提到,人類的智能是一個正態分布,IQ 測試假設平均智能是100,標準差是15,因此95%的人的智商在正負兩個標準差范圍內(即70~130)。愛因斯坦的智商可以達到190,也就是六個標準差,這意味著他比99.99966%的人都要聰明。但是從整體來看,人類的智能是有限的。

    人類的智能也幾乎固定不變,不會隨著時間發展,很難說現代人就比古人聰明,未來的人也未必更聰明。因為智能的生理基礎是大腦,人的腦容量只有1300多毫升,包含了300億個神經元細胞。一萬多年前就是如此,再過一萬年,大腦可能還是這樣大小,不太可能越長越大。

    人工智能的基礎是大規模集成電路,指甲大小(1平方厘米)的芯片,可以集成上百萬個電子元件。有人預測,這個數字每過兩年就翻一倍。孫正義的預測是,30年后的集成電路,電子元件將是現在的100萬倍,即1萬億個!相比大腦的神經元細胞(300億個),他的結論是,人工智能大約在2018年就能達到人類的智力,30年后的2047年,人工智能的 IQ 將達到10000。

    (圖片說明:2047年的晶體管集成程度,將是2017年的100萬倍。)

    (圖片說明:左下角是人的 IQ,右側是人工智能的 IQ。)

    “你想想,那個時候你的鞋子里內置芯片的電子元件數量,都比你的腦細胞還多。你穿的鞋子都比你聰明。”

    2、

    孫正義出身底層,祖父是從韓國大邱移民至日本當礦工的朝鮮人。他的巨額財富來自對于未來的準確判斷和投資。他早期曾經投資過思科和雅虎,都發了大財。1999年,他遇到了馬云,只談了6分鐘,就決定投資2000萬美元,成了阿里巴巴最大股東,這筆錢的回報率后來超過2500倍

    如果這一次孫正義依然正確,那么未來不僅僅是鞋子,你的住宅、汽車、手表、馬桶等等,所有可以裝上芯片的東西都會比你聰明。孫正義說,他的錢都投資在三個領域——人工智能、物聯網和智能機器人——賭這個預言一定成真。

    實際上,智能鞋子已經上市了,內置芯片,“搭載六軸傳感器,可以測量日常步數,里程,消耗等數據,在開啟跑步模式后,還可計算并記錄跑步過程中前掌著地,觸地時長和騰空比例的專業運動數據,根據這些數據實時調整運動方式方法。”還有的鞋子會自動系鞋帶,“用戶穿上時,會激活腳后跟的傳感器,運動鞋就開始自動調整松緊”。

    現在的鞋就這么先進了,再過30年,它們會變成什么樣?

    3、

    我們周圍的所有東西,以后都會裝上傳感器和芯片,都會具備智能,比人類更聰明。現在已經有了智能手機、智能電視機、智能手表、智能電飯煲、智能牙刷、智能內衣……這樣的智能產品將會越來越多。

    它們收集和處理各種數據,到頭來變得比你更了解你。你還記得上個月的今天,你去了哪里,停留了多久,遇到誰,吃了什么嗎?你每天幾點入睡,每分鐘的心跳是多少,有沒有做夢?它們都知道。

    這些海量的數據,經過統計學處理,就可以精確地刻畫你,發現你最有可能的行為是什么。更重要的是,它們還會自動替你做出最優決策。要是你不知道下一步走哪條路,就讓你的鞋做決定好了。

    4、

    以 GPS 為例,開車去市中心,根本不用自己選路線,導航軟件早就選好了。就算很熟悉道路,你最好還是聽從軟件的安排,因為軟件比你掌握更多的信息。有一回,我打的去火車站,出租車司機發現軟件給出的路線不是最近的,自做主張抄近路,沒料到有一段單行道正在施工,根本走不通。

    這只是一個小例子:軟件的選擇優于你的選擇。以后不僅僅是路線,所有的決定都將是軟件替你來做。

    你想晚上去鍛煉,是健身房好,還是馬路慢跑好?你的鞋就會告訴你,慢跑比較好,因為天氣晴朗,風力適中,公共綠地里面的櫻花開了,一路上可以聞到香氣,而且你的小區正在流行感冒,健身房里面被感染的可能性大于40%。

    再比如公司聚會,你不知道該找誰聊天,但是你的鞋知道。經過分析社交網站的資料,發現你與張小姐的愛好相似,你們上一周還看過相同的電影,碰巧她還是單身,于是你的鞋建議你走向張小姐,互相認識一下。

    機器比你聰明,知道你的 DNA,了解你每頓飯攝入的熱量,它比你更了解你,還了解其他相關信息,那么最優決策就是自己不要決策了,都聽從機器的安排。它的決策才是對你最有利的決策。

    5、

    如果將來都是人工智能代替人在決策,那么個人、個性、自我這些詞就沒多大意義了。古希臘神廟刻著一行字,“認識你自己”;蘋果公司創始人喬布斯說,你要聽從內心的聲音。這些都不必要了。

    算法刻畫的你,才是真正的你。《未來簡史》里面說:

    “別再浪費時間研究哲學、冥想或精神分析,你應該系統性地收集自己的生物統計數據,允許算法為你分析這些數據,告訴你你是誰、該做些什么。”

    曾經有一本暢銷書《內向者優勢》,解釋內向和外向根本不是性格問題,而是生理問題。內向者的多巴胺分泌比較少,在公開場合容易產生疲倦,而外向者的多巴胺分泌比較多,人越多越容易興奮。將來,人工智能會精確知道每一類活動的多巴胺指數,選出最合適你的活動,這比你自己選擇可靠多了。

    6、

    以前,人們認為,“智能”和“意識”差不多是同義詞,不能獨立存在,只有具備意識的生物才可能具備智能。

    人工智能的興起,使得這種想法不成立了。智能完全可以不需要意識,獨立存在。沒有意識的機器,也可以具備智能。這種無意識的智能,依靠的不是認知,而是模式匹配。我新買了一臺掃地機器人,它對我家的房型一清二楚,根本不會撞墻。原因不是它意識到那里有墻,而是經過第一天的反復試錯以后,它記住了那里沒有路。再比如,機器能夠認出照片里的鳥,不是因為它認識鳥,而是因為它發現這個形狀可以與數據庫里面鳥的形狀匹配。

    意識與智能的分離,最受企業歡迎。因為企業需要的是智能,而不是意識。員工如果能夠減少個人意識,增加更多的生產線上的智能,就能更符合企業的需要。

    你的鞋一天天變得更加智能,你由于不用決策了,你本人的智能高低也就不重要了,你的自我意識也會變得淡漠,因為發展個性的結果,無非就是變成你的鞋預測你將會成為的樣子。最終來說,人工智能不僅取代了一部分人的智能,還將使得人們缺乏個人意識,不知道自己主張什么,想要什么,因為軟件都替你安排好了。西方的民主制度可能也不必要了,因為一人一票的公民投票有一個前提:每個人知道自己想要什么。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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