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    技術決定歷史

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    大學時期,我的專業是世界經濟。那個專業需要學習《經濟史》,了解古代的人們怎么掙錢和花錢。

    《經濟史》的課程很有趣,讀完以后,看待歷史的眼光會不一樣。

    以前,我覺得政治最重要,決定了歷史的變遷。學了《經濟史》,我認識到,經濟比政治更重要。政治人物只是舞臺上的演員,劇情走向早由經濟因素決定了。

    2、

    舉例來說,美國南北戰爭的根本原因就是經濟。北方發展制造業,缺乏雇工,迫切希望南方種植園釋放黑奴,讓他們到工廠里面當工人。南方莊園主堅決不同意,一旦奴隸制度消失了,誰會愿意忍受烈日高溫,到地里采棉花?如果棉花種植成本大幅上漲,就無法向歐洲出口,莊園主就會破產。

    再比如,大明王朝的滅亡原因也是經濟。歷史學家黃仁宇指出,明朝財政非常困難,根本無力抵抗各種入侵。

    “在黃仁宇看來,明朝十六世紀的財稅困境,在于低下的稅收管理水平無法適應其極度復雜的稅收結構,導致了財政系統全國范圍內的混亂局面。而“奉行成例”的僵化思維又使任何有效的改革無法實行,從而使政府稅收長期不足,公共行政能力十分低下,無法有效地行使政府職能,最終導致災難性的后果。”

    3、

    很長一段日子,我都持有這種“經濟決定論”,進而沉迷于證券市場,相信“股市是經濟的晴雨表”。就這樣,浪費了很多時間。

    后來,全球金融危機爆發,各國紛紛出臺刺激經濟的政策。這件事讓我很困惑:經濟學已經有幾百年的歷史,早就成了一門“科學”,但是為什么沒能防止(甚至都沒預測到)這么大規模的經濟危機呢?

    危機爆發之后,經濟學家還在爭論不休,回答不了幾個最基本的問題:

    • 危機會持續多久?
    • 如何解決危機?
    • 類似的危機將來會不會再發生?

    我對經濟學的信心,就是從那個時候開始動搖和崩潰的。

    4、

    在學校期間,我學會了制作網頁,架設了個人網站。離開學校以后,更是親身感受到了,互聯網技術對整個社會和個人命運的巨大改變。

    對我來說,技術變得比經濟學更有吸引力了。漸漸地,我不再閱讀經濟學書籍了,轉而大量閱讀技術書籍。

    熟悉科技史以后,我看待歷史的觀點,再一次發生了巨大的變化。我現在認為,主導歷史的因素,短期(一年到幾年)是政治,中期(幾年到幾十年)是經濟,長期(幾十年到幾百年)則是技術。

    長期來看,政治和經濟都不太重要,影響不了趨勢,真正起決定性作用的是技術。政治和經濟只能改變資源的分配和價格,只有技術才能創造出新東西。政治和經濟只能使人類在平面上移動,只有技術才能使得人類向上提升,進入下一個階段。

    5、

    我發現,人類的每一次大發展,都是技術推動的。

    (1)石器時代,人類學會了加工石材,有了最基本的工具,可以定居生活了,進入了氏族社會。

    (2)等到掌握了糧食生產技術,人類有了多余的糧食,氏族就分化出了階層,產生了貴族和首領。

    (3)鐵器時代,人類掌握了冶煉技術,能生產更好的農具和武器,擁有鐵器的氏族開始征服其他氏族,慢慢演變成封建王國。

    (4)歐洲的封建時期有1000多年,中國有2000多年,為什么會延續這么長?就是因為這段時間,技術沒有重大突破。

    (5)等到歐洲人掌握了造紙術印刷術,新思想第一次可以廉價地大規模傳播(此前都是羊皮的手抄書,一般人看不到),黑暗的中世紀因此終結,文藝復興開始,人類進入近代社會。

    (6)火藥的出現,使得騎兵和城堡變得毫無作用,一小股軍隊就會擁有巨大的殺傷力,諸侯林立的歐洲開始統一為一個個民族國家,現代意義上的政府出現了。

    (7)工業革命始于人類能夠制造蒸汽機,生產力提升了一個數量級,要求大規模的社會分工和交換,由此誕生了資本主義制度,直到今天。

    總之,重大的新技術一旦出現,政治制度和經濟制度——不管主動或被動——最終都會為之重構,讓這項技術的威力發揮到最大。這就是為什么技術是最終的決定因素,決定了人類社會的演變。

    6、

    今天,我們正身處最新一次、也是最大一次的技術革命:信息技術革命。技術進步的速度日新月異,而且還在加速,這就注定了目前的人類社會也會隨之大變。

    很多我們習以為常的事情,都已經完全改變了。15年前,世界市值最大的前五大公司只有一家技術公司,今天已經全部是了。新技術創造了財富,財富也在流向技術。

    中國也是如此,2017年中國市值最大的公司,是香港上市的騰訊,第二名是美國上市的阿里巴巴。曾經的巨無霸——中國石油、工商銀行、中國移動——都被擠到后面去了。

    時代已經變了,新人和新公司每天都在崛起,舊的公司和制度每天都在沒落。技術正在加速重塑人類社會。

    7、

    以色列學者尤瓦爾·赫拉利在《未來簡史》一書中感嘆:

    “現代科技已經讓人類擁有了超過遠古諸神的力量,我們的后代肯定將擁有神一樣的創造力和毀滅力。

    我們并不知道眼前的道路會把我們引向何方,也不知道我們那些像神一般的后代會是什么樣子。”

    正如他所說,我們正身處在一個前人從未有過的處境:技術讓人類這種渺小的生物,擁有了神一般的力量。這種力量會把我們帶到哪里?完全不知道。

    我的心情很矛盾。一方面,對未來的新技術,我感到無比興奮和期待,就像推特上面一位網友所說。

    “一想到我的壽命只有幾十年,我就感到特別難過。倒不是因為我害怕死亡,而是因為我將沒有機會看到,未來一千年中各種新奇有趣的新技術。”

    另一方面,我還有一種不好的預感。人類掌握的技術,已經強大到足以毀滅人類自身,在技術面前,普通人(大多數人都是普通人)已經沒有多大用處了。人類的歷史將會怎樣改變?這不禁令人充滿了在劫難逃的擔憂。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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