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    母雞與前端工程師

    作者: 阮一峰

    1、

    新聞說,2016年全國高校畢業生達到空前的756萬,又趕上很多傳統行業壓縮產能,就業壓力很大。

    很多曾經的“明星專業”,都已經就業困難。我考大學的時候,國際貿易是最熱門的專業之一,大家認定這個專業容易賺錢。但是現在這個專業的畢業生,想找一份好工作會很難,上海將它列入10大預警專業,即最難就業的十個專業之一。

    但是,并非所有行業都不景氣。至少有一個行業的用工需求極其旺盛,到處都是招聘廣告,工作崗位是應聘者數量的好幾倍,通常你都有好幾家公司可以挑。每周都有朋友發來消息,能不能幫忙介紹幾個人過來,我們實在是缺人啊。

    這個行業就叫做互聯網開發。

    2、

    互聯網行業的勞動力需求,可以用“用工荒”來形容。

    只要你會做網頁,尤其是手機 App 的頁面,或者微信的活動頁面,就不愁找不到工作。哪怕你剛剛學會幾個月,或者剛從培訓班畢業,只要能拿出作品,就會有比其他行業高得多的起薪。等到有了一兩年工作經驗,工資就可以達到大學教授的水平。

    這樣的就業行情,怎不令人趨之若騖。盡管每年都有好幾萬新人加入,互聯網公司還是在喊,工程師嚴重短缺。

    我曾經不太理解,為什么網頁開發工程師(或稱前端工程師)這么搶手。直到有一天,看到了一組雞蛋的統計數據,才想通了這個問題。

    3、

    中國是世界雞蛋第一大國。據統計,2013年全國產量5750億枚,一個中國人平均一年要吃掉400多枚雞蛋。

    那么中國需要多少只母雞,才能達到這樣的產量?

    據說,普通母雞一年大概生200~250枚雞蛋。養雞場里面最優秀的母雞,一年可以達到320枚。以250枚計算的話,中國至少需要有23億只母雞,才能滿足全國人民吃蛋的需求。

    4、

    如果把雞蛋換成網頁,同樣的問題就是,中國一年需要生產多少張網頁,才能滿足人民消費的需要?

    去年,我國手機用戶超過13億,智能手機用戶超過6億。就算其中只有一半人上網,那也是3億多人。這么多人,每天都有幾十分鐘或者幾個小時,要使用手機上網。全體中國人一年消費的網頁和 App 的數量,是一個天文數字。

    雞蛋是母雞生出來的,網頁從哪里來?歸根結底,所有頁面都需要工程師做出來。那么多互聯網公司,每家公司都需要前端工程師。而全國的前端工程師,目前可能總共有幾十萬人,對比那么大的內容消費量,肯定是遠遠不夠的(想一想吧,全國的母雞有23億只)。這樣一想,工程師搶手就不奇怪了。

    你可能會說,雞蛋只能消費一次,網頁可以被許多人消費,因此工程師的需求量遠遠小于母雞的需求量。理論上確實如此,但是國內的互聯網主要是商務驅動,運營活動特別多,修改的迭代也多,這導致網頁的生命周期非常短,少則幾天,多則幾周。工程師必須不停地制造網頁,才能滿足海量的需求。

    前端工程師不夠,還有一個很重要的原因:學校不教前端開發,可能會有一些相關課程,但不會系統地教,所有前端工程師都是靠自學的。這也導致了供給偏少。

    5、

    由于工作好找和工資較高,前端工程師現在成了一個熱門職業。很多不是搞計算機的人,也在考慮轉行加入。社會上的培訓班,每個周末的各種講座和大會,都已經人滿為患。

    我經常收到電子郵件,咨詢是否應該改行。

    “我是一名會計/教師/導游,現在的工作沒有任何成就感,感到沒有發展空間。如果我拿出一年左右的時間去自學前端類的課程,將來能走上程序員這條路嗎?”

    這可怎么答復?

    6、

    前端編程入門,確實不難,可以短期速成。只要你對計算機有基本的理解,哪怕編程零基礎,經過三四個月的培訓,也能做出網頁和 App。

    如果你確實想改行,我覺得,這基本上是一件好事,你應該選擇那些更有前景的職業。但問題是,并非每個人都適合編程。現在那么多人一窩蜂學習互聯網開發,肯定有人將來會后悔。

    你最好事先知道下面三件事,再考慮加入這個行業。

    7、

    首先,你應該熱愛編程。

    職業程序員每天都必須長時間地坐在電腦前面,與機器對話的時間,遠超過與人對話。如果不是真心熱愛編程,這會很難忍受,簡直像是一種懲罰。讓一個人在他不喜歡的事情上面,筋疲力盡地干上幾年甚至幾十年,那是多么痛苦的人生。

    其次,編程本身雖然是一種智力活動,但是中國的現實卻更像一種體力勞動。

    由于運營活動太多,開發是做不完的,App 必須不斷地推出新版本。工作量常常是超負荷的,任務排期一個接著一個,中間根本沒有喘息時間,同時做多個項目也是家常便飯。每個項目都有截止期,做不完只能加班。這樣說吧,制作網頁本身是有趣的,但是像流水線一樣的“制造”網頁是乏味的,好比養雞場的母雞不停得下蛋,每周必須完成5個蛋的指標。

    最后,這個行業的新陳代謝很快。

    快速的技術更新和極大的工作強度,使得年輕人具有天然的優勢。等到職業生涯后期,你的開發速度開始慢下來,就是你被更年輕的人取代的時候。一只母雞一生中,大約總共可以生2000枚雞蛋,你的一生中可以制作的網頁(或者 App),大概也是一個常數。

    8、

    如果你不喜歡編程,體會不到代碼的樂趣和成就感,只是為了一份好的薪水,就跑來干,那就是很糟糕的選擇。想一想如果十年前,你聽說國際貿易很興旺,高考志愿就填了國際貿易,今天會怎樣呢?

    你應該選擇,那些讓你產生最大興趣和熱情的職業。因為未來所有行業,低端的、低技能的崗位都會被機器取代,只有技能最強、最有創造性的人不會被淘汰。興趣,也只有興趣,才會讓你產生不倦的熱情,鉆研下去,變得更優秀。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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