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    為什么退休金是靠不住的

    作者: 阮一峰

    我以前在高校工作,很多老師最關心一件事,就是何時退休。

    現在有很多消息,官方渠道透露,退休年齡將推遲,具體方案很快就會出臺。一個人以后要工作更長的年限,才會退休。

    表面上,這是因為人的壽命變長了,可以工作到更老。但是,直接的原因是人口老齡化加速,退休人口越來越多,活得越來越長,我們國家的養老金不夠了。公開的報道這樣寫道:

    “2016年2月,人社部部長尹蔚民稱,2015年底全國養老的平均支付能力達到17個月。其中,黑龍江、吉林、青海、河北等8個省份的可支付月數低于10個月。黑龍江的可支付月數僅為1個月。”

    這就是說,如果沒有新的錢進來,全國的養老金在17個月后就會發放光。當然,這種事情不會發生,因為法律規定,每個月發工資的時候,個人和單位都要向政府繳納養老保險,具體比例由各省自行決定。以上海為例,單位繳納個人工資的20%,個人繳納工資的8%。所以,每個月都會有新的資金進入養老基金。

    但是,這等于是用現在還沒退休的人的養老金,發給已經退休的人。如果就業人口一年比一年多,這種方法可以奏效。我們國家的現實卻是,青壯年勞動力正在一年年變少,每月新增的基金已經快要不夠發放了。

    “《中國社會保險發展年度報告(2015)》顯示,黑龍江、遼寧、吉林、河北、陜西和青海六省份的城鎮企業職工養老保險基金當期收不抵支,并且,個人賬戶基金從2014年的5001億元下降到3274億元。”

    上面報道的意思是,六個省的養老基金已經收不抵支了。全國養老金的整體狀況也很嚴峻,未來必須有大量資金注入,才能彌補缺口。

    所以,一定要推遲退休,而且必須盡快地實施,原因就很清楚了。因為只有到了法定退休年齡,你才能領養老金。哪怕只是推遲一年退休,全國因此省下來的養老金就是一大筆錢,至少幾千億。

    我在這里不是想討論,推遲退休是否正確,或者養老金制度設計得好不好,只是想提醒讀者,我們面臨的現實。

    未來,很可能過了65歲,你的頭發白了、眼睛花了、牙齒松了,還不得不朝九晚五地上班,為別人打工。就算現行的養老金制度能夠保持到你退休時,你拿到的養老金也很可能由于通貨膨脹,而變得非常微薄。這種前景只要想一想,就會覺得不寒而栗。

    大多數人之所以工作,不是因為熱愛工作,而是因為這樣可以掙到錢,可以有保障,得到安穩的退休生活。但是這一切看上去很難實現了,如今你必須忍受著疲憊,工作更多年,到頭來發現,你的養老并沒有保障。

    臺灣是一個現成的例子。它是世界上生育率最低的地區之一,所以他們的養老金早就不夠用了,破產在即,不得不立刻改革,減少養老金發放規模。臺灣年輕人的薪水并不高,臺北房價卻直逼香港東京,現在養老金又要減少,年輕人的郁悶和絕望可想而知。一個臺灣網友給出了三條對策

    • 上策:要求改變制度設計,每一代人自己養自己,讓有錢的老人補貼沒錢的老人,不要拿下一代的錢發給上一代人。

    • 中策:移民,徹底脫離這個制度。自己出不去,也要讓下一代出去。

    • 下策:如果走不了,就不要生育,并且拼命地掙錢和存錢。同時,支持安樂死合法化,因為未來很可能,你的錢都用光了,人卻還沒死。

    這段話看著讓人心酸。為了老年生活有保障,你不得不拼命工作,掙更多的錢。但是,這條路上已經擠滿了人,很可能你為雇主投入了100%的心力,年復一年,到老還是在為生存掙扎。

    其實,我們還有另一種選擇。反正已經是這種處境了,為什么不索性換一種活法呢。如果不喜歡這個工作,你是否還要繼續下去,熬到退休拿養老金?如果養老金是鏡花水月,為什么不趁早去干一些自己想干的事情?

    與其等待別人決定,你應該在什么時候退休。你也可以做一回命運的主人,哪天覺得沒意思了,拍拍衣服說,從現在開始我退休了。以前這是癡人說夢,現在可不一樣,因為你的機會成本小多了,養老金幾乎肯定不值得期待。

    你可能還是會說,上面的話是一派胡言,沒工作了就沒錢,沒錢怎么活?不,這不是空想。事實上,美國早有人研究過這個問題:一個普通的工薪族,怎么樣才能在40歲退休?結論是,完全可能做到。

    上個世紀70年代,美國學者研究了1926年至1976年的證券投資回報率,發現存在一條經驗規則:如果一年的支出小于投資組合的4%,那么你就可以退休了。這被稱為“百分之四”規則(Four Percent Rule)。舉例來說,如果你每年的總支出為4萬,而你的證券投資有100萬,那么你就可以退休了。根據研究,這條規則成功的概率是94%,即每年從證券賬戶提款4萬元,用于消費,你有94%的概率,可以連續提款超過30年。

    剛開始,美國人自己也不相信這個規則是可靠的,有人在1994年做了一次實證檢驗,故意選擇1938年到1972年這段大熊市,每年取出原始投資金額的4%。結果令人震驚,一直要到33年以后才會把錢取光。這還是熊市,如果碰到大牛市,連續取款的年數還可以延長。

    我并不是說,你真的用這個規則,來安排自己的退休規劃,而是用它來證明,只要管控好支出,提前退休在財務上是完全可行的。萬一真的使用這個規則,有兩個不利因素,必須要考慮到。一是醫療支出很可能會隨著年齡增長而增長,另一個是現在全世界的利率,要比上個世紀低很多。不過正常情況下,除了醫療支出,你的其他消費往往隨著年齡增長而減少。因此,除了原始積累,你最好還有其他穩定的收入來源(比如房租收入、版權收入、債券收入、人壽保險的收入),這樣應付沖擊的能力就強一些,提前退休就更有把握。

    提前退休并不是每個人都能行得通,但是如果你很早就開始提前規劃,可能性就會大大增加,如果你對自己的消費有嚴格的紀律,就完全有可能做到。提前退休并不意味著,從此你什么也不干了,而是讓你有機會,在一個自己有熱情的領域創造出更大的價值。一旦你體驗過,按照自己的想法生活,自由安排時間,你就完全回不去了,再也無法忍受那種大公司小隔間的呆板壓抑的生活了。

    最后生成于 2018-7-9 08:15:49

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